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China Outlook 2019 – Stimulus offsets trade risks

China Outlook 2019 – Stimulus offsets trade risks

China Outlook 2019 – Stimulus offsets trade risks

    • 2018 marks the resumption of China’s gradual slowdown
      … driven by financial deleveraging and initial drags from trade conflict US
    • Trump and Xi Jinping agree on 90 day truce in Buenos Aires
    • Should downside pressures intensify, Beijing has more room for stimulus
    • Yuan weakness also cushions impact tariffs, but we expect some recovery
    • All in all, we expect China’s slowdown to remain gradual in 2019 and 2020

 

  • Main risks: tensions with the US, other geopolitical risks, high debt levels