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Asymmetric impact of government public debt and gdp growth: case study from Nigeria

This research looks deeply into the lopsided connections between Nigeria's government debt and its impact on GDP growth from a period of 1991 to 2022. The methods applied during this research study was a non-linear autoregressive distributed lag, called NARDL method, using Wald F-test to know if the government debt to GDP is asymmetric or not, after using ADF and KPSS test for the unit root to measure and pinpoint accurately the parameters of Nigeria's government debt and its positive and negative shocks on the economy, this research shows that they are -12.36 and 9.17 respectively. Then it is clear that the responsiveness of GDP growth to negative is stronger than positive values of debt. A 1% increase in government public debt will cause the GDP growth to be lesser by 9.17% and the coefficient is insignificant statistically. A 1% decrease in public debt is associated with a GDP growth increase of 12.36%. A positive and significant effect of the share of agriculture resulted in 10.51% increase in GDP growth, showing that GDP growth was different when the values of debt were negative and when its positive, meaning that it is better for the Nigeria government to wisely manage its public debt and fiscal sustainability so that its GDP growth can grow in an increasing order.