Our assessment, and that of most observers, is that the overall economic impacts over both the short and medium term will be negative and concentrated on the UK economy. Over the longer term, the magnitude of the impact will depend on the degree to which the UK reduces links with the EU and is able to engage with others. Beyond the UK, the main negative short-run economic effects are expected in Europe, reflecting trade and financial links and associated uncertainty. Global economic activity is widely expected to be only modestly affected by Brexit, given the UK’s relatively small share (just over 2 per cent) of global GDP.