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Anticipating the next global financial crisis and recession
This paper develops the view that the next financial crisis will be triggered by a global debt crisis. The paper reviews developments since the collapse of Lehman Brothers in the fall of 2008 with focus on (i) the evolution since 2007 of country sovereign debt obligations, (ii) the degree of preparation of large US and European banks to cope with another financial crisis, (iii) the implications of changes in the composition of borrowers profiles in the international non-financial corporate debt market, (iv) changes in the composition of global household debt, (v) some thoughts on the timing, possible causes, and potential severity of the next global financial crisis and recession, and (vi) some thoughts on how well-prepared are major economies or regions to address the consequences of another financial crisis and/or recession. The conclusion is that excessive overall levels of global debt, the changing composition of debt offerings in the international debt markets, the lingering possibility of aggressive US central bank interest rate policy and likely refinancing challenges for non-investment grade corporate borrowers are most likely to propel us into the next global financial crisis and recession