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Four-Monthly Report of Public Debt Projections
Published on October 30, 2019 the fourth edition of the Four-Monthly Report of Public Debt Projections has been published. A brief English summary of the document: - The report updates National Treasury forecasts for debt dynamics. There are also simulations to estimate the magnitude of fiscal results required to reduce the debt-to-GDP ratio to levels closer to those prevailing in emerging economies with risk profile compatible with an investment grade rating assessment. - In the baseline scenario the General Government Gross Debt (GGGD) should grow to 80.8% of GDP by the end of 2019, peaking at 81.8% in 2022 before declining to 73.5% in 2028. Public Sector Net Debt (PSND), in turn, is expected to reach 57.6% of GDP by the end of 2019, peak at 64.8% in 2024 and going down to 61.5% in 2028. The baseline scenario assumes an average primary balance of 0.44% of GDP between 2020 and 2028. This underlining fiscal strategy however, entails reverting the 1.8% deficit expected for 2019 to primary surpluses around 1.6% of GDP in 2028, which calls for measures oriented towards continued progress on fiscal consolidation, especially regarding guaranteeing spending cap compliance.