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Debt Sustainability Monitor 2019
The Debt Sustainability Monitor 2019 provides an overview of fiscal sustainability challenges faced by EU Member States over the short, medium and long term. The European and world economies weakened last year, notably given the unfavourable external environment. Many features of the global slowdown are expected to be persistent (including trade policy uncertainty, deceleration in China, low productivity trends). Based on the latest available Commission forecast (Autumn forecast 2019), growth is not expected to rebound significantly in the next two years. In response to these developments, most central banks across the world have recently implemented more accommodative policies. Government bonds have rallied remarkably in recent months, leading to lower yields along the entire yield curve, but more importantly for the long-term part (observed compression in term premia). In the EU, a large share of sovereign bonds is currently trading at negative yields. […]