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ESMA Risk Dashboard Risk up-date – April 2020

We are up-dating our risk assessment in light of the COVID-19 pandemic.1 The pandemic, in combination with the valuation risks to which we had alerted in ESMA’s previous risk assessments, has led to massive equity market corrections since mid-February, driven by a sharp deterioration in the outlook for consumers, businesses and of the economic environment. Corporate bond, government bond markets and a number of investment funds show signs of stress. Market infrastructures have continued to function orderly despite a massive surge in trading activity, circuit breakers and derivatives margins. Going forward, we see – intermittent market rebounds notwithstanding – a prolonged period of risk to institutional and retail investors of further – possibly significant – market corrections and see very high risks across the whole of the ESMA remit. Our outlook on operational risks is negative given the rising reliance on remote working arrangements, even if Business Continuity Plans are widely reported as working. To what extent these risks will further materialise will critically depend on two drivers: The economic impact of the pandemic, and any occurrence of additional external events in an already fragile global environment.