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Ghana’s rising Public Debt: causes and implications

Unsustainability of the public debt. One major problem of Ghana’s rising public debt has to do with its sustainability, both currently and in the medium-term. In 2015 when Ghana signed up to a three-year IMF Extended Credit Facility program for an amount of $918 million, the Fund’s debt sustainability analysis classified the country as at ‘high risk of debt distress on account of the level of the public debt. Four years later, the country’s debt situation had not improved. The World Bank and the IMF have maintained Ghana as a high risk of debt distress country after their latest debt sustainability analysis concluded that the country’s risks of external and overall debt distress continue to be high and the country’s public debt level has breached its sustainability threshold. The Fund’s October 2019 debt sustainability analysis also found the country’s medium-term debt path to be high, reflecting lower GDP growth, a higher fiscal deficit (due largely to energy sector costs) and debt service over the medium term. Although there is marked improvement in the solvency ratios following the rebasing of the GDP, the debt service ratios continue to breach their respective benchmarks, reflecting the underlying vulnerabilities.