There is a serious risk of a sequel to the Euro Crisis that ran from roughly 2010 to 2015. The likelihood of such a crisis is hotly debated and depends on one’s views of a number of factors that are summarized in this paper. My own base case continues to be for some version of Euro Crisis 2.0 over the next two years, but recent positive developments may cause me to lower that probability somewhat below 50 percent. […]