The combination of the government’s emergency policies and the plunge in economic activity means Italy’s fiscal health will see a massive blow. As analyzed in the most recent briefing, in our baseline we assume that the fiscal deficit will increase to around 10% of GDP and the government debt will see a level shift to around 155% of GDP. From the start of 2021, we expect Italian fiscal authorities to implement some tightening measures, gradually bringing the primary surplus to around 1.5% of GDP in 2022. Several risks, such as how the pandemic progresses and the length of the lockdown, could threaten our baseline view.