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European Economic Forecast. Autumn 2020
The COVID-19 pandemic caused an economic crisis unique in its severity. Following the disruptions in the first half of 2020, the initial phase of the economic recovery, helped by unprecedented policy support, was quick to materialise when containment measures were eased across Europe. In recent weeks, however, the resurgence in infections has led to the re-introduction of containment measures in many Member States. These are expected to weigh on economic activity and sentiment in the short run, with negative effects on consumption and investment, though to a lesser extent than in the spring, as the approach so far has been more targeted. Accordingly, after what appears to have been an exceptionally strong rebound in the third quarter, EU GDP growth looks set to stall in the fourth quarter of 2020. […]