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Euro Area Outlook for 2022 and 2023: Why the Recession Risk is overrated

GDP in the Euro Area will most likely continue to expand in the second half of 2022 and in 2023 escaping a recession despite the headwinds generated by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The Conference Board forecast for GDP growth is 2.7 percent in 2022 and 1.2 percent in 2023. A tight labor market could trigger labor productivity gains in 2023, which would lead to a longer-term gain for the region’s economy. […]