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High public debt levels raise household inflation expectations – but central banks aren’t powerless

The post-pandemic economic recovery has been characterised by a surge in inflation against a background of historically high levels of public debt. This column asks whether high public debt hinders efforts to reduce inflation by increasing household inflation expectations. Using randomised control trials across three countries, the authors find that people underestimate public debt levels and increase inflation expectations when informed about the correct levels. Yet, central banks are far from powerless since central bank credibility is key to weakening the sensitivity of inflation expectations to public debt.