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Fiscal Vulnerabilities in Low-Income Countries
The 26 LICs—the world’s poorest countries—account for just a little more than 0.5 percent of global output and income, but they are home to almost 10 percent of the world’s population and nearly 40 percent of the world’s poor. Two-thirds of LICs (17 out of 26) are classified as fragile and conflict-affected situations (FCS). The COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent overlapping crises have put into reverse LICs’ progress toward convergence with both advanced economy and other EMDE income levels. In the poorest LICs—those with more than half of the population below the extreme poverty line—average per capita income between 2020 and 2024 took a particular hit, falling by up to 14 percent relative to its pre-pandemic trend. To meet critical development goals, LICs will need additional annual investment, relative to current projections, equivalent to 8 percent of GDP through 2030. In other words, these countries will need to double the average annual investment they have made over the past decade. […]