The trajectory of US debt-to-GDP has sharply increased in recent decades, driven by significant fiscal stimulus in response to the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and COVID-19 pandemic. Deficit spending remains elevated compared to typical levels outside of economic crises or wars, with official estimates predicting continued escalation, particularly if Trump’s presidential campaign promises are fulfilled. In this edition of VantagePoint, we explore the primary drivers of this debt increase, including demographics and rising net interest costs, and discuss how changes in economic conditions or policy could alter these projections. […]