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BIS Bulletin - Completing the post-pandemic landing

The global economy is on track for a soft landing, but the outlook has become more uncertain as new challenges loom.  The lingering effects of the rise in the cost of living, large fiscal deficits, heightened policy uncertainty and a stronger US dollar pose risks to the landing.  In such a complex environment, risk management considerations and clear communication are key for central banks to complete the disinflation process while supporting economic activity.  Large fiscal deficits are expected to persist in coming years, sustaining aggregate demand and possibly inflation, especially in economies with already strong economic conditions. Furthermore, fiscal deficits will lead to further increases in public debt levels in some major jurisdictions. This could induce investors to demand greater compensation for holding government bonds, tightening financial conditions and weighing on economic activity. Higher government bond yields and high debt could also leave fiscal policy with limited room for manoeuvre in the event of future shocks. […]