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African Debt Outlook. A Ray of Optimism

The economic outlook for Africa indicates favorable conditions for debt management, with a projected decline in the debt trajectory over the medium term. Forecasts for 2027-2028 suggest an average annual reduction of about 1.6 percentage points, signaling a long-term trend toward improved fiscal health. However, an expected increase of 1.8 percentage points is anticipated in 2024-2025 due to rising interest rates. Debt dynamics exhibit varying trends across African sub-regions, with Southern Africa presenting a notable divergence from the overall decline observed elsewhere. In Northern Africa, the decline in the debt-to-GDP ratio is particularly stark, with projections indicating a reduction of 14.7 percentage points, decreasing from 84.2 percent in 2024 to 69.5 percent by 2028. Several key factors underpin this favorable trend, including a supportive macroeconomic environment, a gradual decrease in persistently high interest rates, improved credit ratings, and renewed access to capital markets […]