The Governing Council is committed to setting monetary policy to ensure that inflation stabilises at its 2% target in the medium term. In line with this commitment, at its meeting on 11 June 2026 it decided to raise the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points. The war in the Middle East is generating inflation pressures, and the decision to raise rates is robust across a range of scenarios mapping out how the shock might evolve and affect the medium-term outlook for the euro area. In the baseline of the June 2026 Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area, headline inflation is expected to average 3.0% in 2026, 2.3% in 2027 and 2.0% in 2028. For inflation excluding energy and food, the baseline foresees an average of 2.5% in 2026 and 2027, and 2.2% in 2028. […]