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EconNet: Managing Expectations with Exchange Rate Policy

Should exchange rate policy communication be transparent or intentionally opaque? We develop a macro model in which agents overreact to the information about economic fundamentals contained in private signals as well as in equilibrium prices, such as the exchange rate. In this environment, FX interventions that are publicly announced signal the central bank’s view about macro fundamentals, whereas opaque FX interventions influence the informational content of the exchange rate and can thus be used to “manage expectations.” If expectations’ overreaction is strong enough, it is optimal to intervene opaquely in order to control the informativeness of the exchange rate.