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Projecting Public Debt and Fiscal Adjustment Paths (DDT tool) (PPDFAP)

This course, presented by the Institute for Capacity Development, explains how to project the stock of public debt over time for baseline (most likely) and alternative scenarios and how to estimate the path of fiscal adjustments necessary to reach a pre-determined target level of debt.This two-module course, lays out the underpinnings of public debt dynamics (i.e., the evolution of public debt over time) and explains how these concepts are applied in an easy-to-use Excel-based Public Debt Dynamics Tool (DDT). Using projections of some 10 key macroeconomic and financial variables, the DDT provides public debt projections under baseline and stress test scenarios, including through fan charts that describe uncertainty about the evolution of debt over time in a probabilistic manner. The DDT also identifies the main drivers of public debt changes and computes measures of fiscal adjustments that are necessary to achieve a public debt target during a certain period, as specified by the user.

Apply online by February 29, 2024