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Research and Policy Seminar: The Global Economy at Turning Point

As the world emerges from the turbulence of the past few years, can it be expected to settle back to pre-pandemic normal? Two major changes ahead include the likelihood of significantly higher real interest rates than prevailed from 2012-2021, and much slower growth in China in the decade ahead, despite a short-term burst from ending lockdown.  Both factors will likely contribute to higher steady state inflation globally, as will higher geopolitical tensions.  This new landscape could have significant implications for macroeconomic policy.