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Post-Event Summary: 4th PDM Conference
Hosted at the OECD Headquarters in Paris, the Conference brought together debt managers, policymakers, academics, international organizations and market participants from around the world for two days of stimulating discussions and knowledge exchange.
Organized under the PDM Network, a joint initiative of the Italian Treasury, the OECD and the World Bank, the Conference once again demonstrated the value of bringing together diverse perspectives to advance the public debt management agenda. Held every two years, the Conference has become a leading forum for discussing key developments in sovereign debt management.
The Conference benefited from an exceptionally strong pool of paper submissions and a highly competitive selection process, resulting in presentations of outstanding academic quality and policy relevance.
We were also honoured to welcome Sir Robert Stheeman, Chairman of Morgan Stanley International and former CEO of the UK Debt Management Office, whose keynote address provided valuable insights for the debt management community.
From debt sustainability and sovereign debt restructuring to climate risks, market liquidity, transparency and debt management strategies, the breadth and depth of this year's programme reflected the growing importance of public debt management in an increasingly challenging global environment.
Explore the full speaker biographies, and paper abstracts.
Thursday, September 10th
Opening remarks
Carmine Di Noia, Director for Financial and Enterprise Affairs, OECD (Speech)
Davide Iacovoni, Public Debt Director General, Italian Treasury
Manuela Francisco, Global Director, Fiscal Policy and Growth, Prosperity, World Bank Group (Speech)
Session I - Fiscal Policy and Debt Sustainability
Chair: Ottavio Ricchi, Head of Economic-Financial Analysis and Research, Italian Treasury
From Stocks to Flows: Debt Service and Fiscal Sustainability (Presentation) (Paper)
Barry Eichengreen, University of California, Berkeley
Maxime Menuet, Université Côte d’Azur
Gregory Donnat, Université Côte d’Azur
The Cost of Credibility: Fiscal Rules and Recession Risk During Consolidations (Presentation) (Paper)
Leandro Andrian, Inter-American Development Bank
Cesar M. Rodriguez, Portland State University
Oscar M. Valencia, Inter-American Development Bank
Fiscal Guardrails against Rising Debt and Looming Spending Pressures (Presentation)
Julien Acalin, , IMF
Virginia Alonso, , IMF
Clara Arroyo, , IMF
W. Raphael Lam, , IMF
Leonardo Martinez, , IMF
Anh Dinh Minh Nguyen, , IMF
Francisco Roch, , IMF
Galen Sher, , IMF
Alexandra Solovyeva, IMF
Determinants of Spreads on European Supranational Debt: Towards a Genuine European Safe Asset?(Presentation) (Paper)
Kalin Anev Janse, , ESM, University of Amsterdam
Roel Beetsma, , University of Amsterdam
Andy Li, University of Amsterdam
PARALLEL SESSIONS 2
Session 2a: Sovereign Debt Restructuring: Creditors, Coordination and Official Support
Chair: Diego Rivetti, Senior Debt Specialist, Global Macro and Debt Unit, World Bank
A Scandal in Bohemia – The Perils of Incestuous Sovereign Repos (Paper)
Lee C. Buchheit, University of Edinburgh
Mitu Gulati, University of Virginia
The Macroeconomic Implications of Creditor Coordination in Sovereign Defaults (Presentation) (Paper)
Idoia Aguirre, Universidad Pública de Navarra
Gong Cheng, BIS
Aitor Erce, Universidad Pública de Navarra
Official Lending in Sovereign Crises (Presentation)
Aitor Erce, , Universidad Pública de Navarra
Carlo Galli, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid;
Emircan Yurdagul, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid
Session 2b: Climate Risks and Sovereign Debt: Vulnerability and Resilience
Chair: Olena Havrylchyk, Professor of Economics, University Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne
Under Pressure: Sovereign Debt Challenges in a Warming World (Presentation) (Paper)
Caterina Seghini, Banque de France
Stéphane Dees, Banque de France
Annabelle De Gaye, Banque de France
Kenya: Droughts and Debt. Do Climate Shocks Increase Domestic Borrowing Costs? (Presentation)
Alex Dryden, SOAS University of London
Niccolò Rescia, Global Sovereign Advisory
Ulrich Volz, SOAS University of London
Yoan Raih, Finance for Development Lab
Risk-Neutral Pricing of Climate Resilient Debt Clauses and Structures (CRDC/CRDS) (Presentation)
Ulf G. Erlandsson, The Fourth Swedish State Pension Fund AP4
Jonas David, Anthropocene Fixed Income Institute (AFII)
PARALLEL SESSIONS 3
Session 3a: Sustainable Debt Instruments and Policy Design
Chair: Emre Tiftik, Director, Global Markets and Policy, Institute of International Finance
The Sovereign Greenium: Big Promise but Small Price Effect (Presentation) (Paper)
Ugo Panizza, Geneva Graduate Institute
Beatrice Weder di Mauro, Geneva Graduate Institute
Shuyang Shi, Geneva Graduate Institute
Mitu Gulati, University of Virginia
Public Sector Green Bonds: legacy, issuance strategies and cost (Presentation)
Francesco Baldi, University of Bologna
Giovanni Ferri, Università LUMSA
Transition Linkers (Presentation)
Ulf G. Erlandsson, The Fourth Swedish State Pension Fund AP4
Session 3b: Sovereign Debt Primary Markets: The Relevance of Issuance Mechanisms and Investor Relations
Chair: Anthony Linehan , Deputy Director, Funding and Debt Management, NTMA, Ireland
Sovereign Investor Relations: A Guide for Debt Managers (Presentation) (Paper)
Andre Proite, World Bank
Hakan Yavuz, World Bank
Are Hedge Funds a Hedge for Increasing Government Debt Issuance? (Presentation) (Paper)
Adam Epp, Bank of Canada
Jeffrey Gao, Bank of Canada
Overpriced Treasury Auctions (Presentation) (Paper)
José Miguel Cardoso-Costa, University of Bologna
José Afonso Faias, Universidade Católica Portuguesa
Patrick M. Herb, Northern Arizona University
Mark Wu, Roger Williams University
Friday, September 11th
Session 4 - Sovereign Bond Market Liquidity: The Interplay Between Primary Dealers and Investors
Chair: Davide Iacovoni, Public Debt Director General, Italian Treasury
Decoding Sovereign Bond Market Liquidity: The Primacy of Bond over Dealer Characteristics (Presentation)
Caspar Helmus, Deutsche Bundesbank
Gabor Pinter, BIS
Kathi Schlepper, Deutsche Bundesbank
Andreas Schrimpf, BIS
Cross-Market Liquidity Trade-Offs in Sovereign Bond Markets: Evidence from Dealer–Fund Interactions
Eleonora Iachini, Bank of Italy
International Mutual Fund Trading and Spillovers to Local-currency Bond Markets in Emerging Economies (Presentation) (Paper)
Atsuyoshi Morozumi, University of Nottingham
Michael Bleaney, University of Nottingham
Arif Sulistiono, Ministry of Finance, Indonesia
Who is derisking whom? The Distributional Politics of Debt Management Offices’ Instruments in the Design of the Primary Dealer System
Luca Kokol, Hamburg Institute for Social Research
Jens van‘t Klooster, University of Amsterdam
PARALLEL SESSIONS 5
Session 5a - Global Financial Risks: Spillovers and Sovereign Market Impacts
Chair: Alvaro Pina, Senior Economist, Economics Department, OECD
Decomposing Global Fear: Expected Uncertainty, Risk Aversion, and Sovereign Spreads in Emerging Market Economies (Presentation) (Paper)
Reina Kawai Eskimez, World Bank
Dana Vorisek, World Bank
Global Spillovers from U.S. Bond Supply Shocks (Presentation)
Danila Smirnov, IMF
Session 5b. - Secondary Market Mechanics: The Role of Monetary Policy and the Repo Segment
Chair: Giuseppe Grande, Head of the Market and Payment Systems Oversight Directorate, Bank of Italy
Elastic in Cash, Inelastic in Repo: The Role of Hedge Funds in the Treasury and Repo Markets (Presentation)
Loriana Pelizzon, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE
Andrea Poinelli, European Central Bank
Davide Tomio, Texas A&M University
Benoit Nguyen, European Central Bank
Tobias Linzert, European Central Bank
The Transmission of Monetary Policy Shocks in the Government Bond Secondary Market (Presentation) (Paper)
Valentina Catapano, University of Padua
Luciano Greco, University of Padua
Eleonora Turato, University of Padua
KEYNOTE ADDRESS
Sir Robert Stheeman, Chairman of Morgan Stanley International; former CEO, UK Debt Management Office (Speech)
PARALLEL SESSIONS 6
Session 6a - Transparency, Governance,and Market Access
Chair: Mark Walker, London Coalition on Sovereign Debt
Does Transparency Reduce the African Premium? Evidence from Eurobond Issuances (Presentation) (Paper)
Ghita Lamriki, FINACTU
Géraldine Mermoux, FINACTU
Denis Chemillier-Gendreau, FINACTU
Lossani Zina, FINACTU
André Nana, IDRAC Business School
“De Facto” Barriers to EME Sovereign Capital Flows: Indices and Benchmarking (Presentation)
Mario Huzel, Sustainable Sovereign Debt Hub
Debt Management in a Volatile World: Economic Trade-offs, Legal Design, and Transparency (Presentation) (Paper)
Paola Subacchi, Sciences Po
Rodrigo Olivares-Caminal, Queen Mary University of London
Session 6b - Debt Management Strategies: Modelling, Instruments and Risk Management
Chair: Klas Granlund, Head of Debt Management, Riksgälden, Sweden
The Bank of Canada’s Debt Modeling Framework (Presentation) (Paper)
Nicolas Audet, Bank of Canada
Benchmark Inflation-Linked Bonds and Sovereign Debt Management under Prolonged Uncertainty: Evidence from Brazil (Presentation)
Daniel Cunha, IMF
Felipe Marinho, Banco Mercantil, Brazil
Gabriel Hegab, IMF
Giovana Craveiro, Tesouro Nacional, Brazil
Efficient Sovereign Debt Buybacks (Presentation) (Paper)
Adrien Wicht, University of Basel
PARALLEL SESSIONS 7
Session 7a - Investor Structure and Sovereign-Bank Risk Linkages
Chair: Yasin Mimir, Senior Economist, European Stability Mechanism
Investor Composition and Interest Rate of Government Debt (Presentation) (Paper)
Juyoung Yang, Korea Development Institute
The Connectedness between Sovereign Risk and the Banking Sector (Presentation) (Paper)
Gianluca Cafiso, Università di Catania
Giulia Rivolta, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore
Session 7b - Sovereign Defaults: Transmission Channels and Country Experiences
Chair: Jessica Pulay, CEO, UK Debt Management Office
Sovereign Defaults, Bank Ownership, and Lending Outcomes (Presentation) (Paper)
Silvia Marchesi, University of Milano-Bicocca
Nejat Okatan, University of Milano-Bicocca
Ugo Panizza, Brazilian Treasury
Sri Lanka’s Debt Crisis: A Crisis of Governance (Presentation) (Paper)
Alex Dryden, SOAS University of London
Ulrich Volz, SOAS University of London
Closing remarks
Fatos Koc, Head of Financial Markets Unit, OECD (Speech)