Norway faces a challenging global environment from a position of strength. Sound institutions and prudent management of petroleum wealth have delivered high living standards and substantial fiscal and external buffers. Notwithstanding geopolitical tensions and trade fragmentation, the Norwegian economy is resilient, with mainland growth expected to stay close to potential in 2026. However, heightened uncertainty, persistent above-target inflation, and elevated macrofinancial vulnerabilities leave little room for policy miscalibration.  [...]