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Rates Outlook: Gimme 5

We’ve had a brief look at 5% on the 10-year yield. Now we wait for the Fed. Logic would suggest that a rate hike should calm the back end. However, the back end is super flighty. Delivery of a 25bp hike in a way validates what the back end has been doing in the past number of months, and in that sense could just as easily be an excuse to break back above 5%, and keep on going. [...]