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Is the US Economy Overheating and Should Bond Markets Be Worried?

The United States economy is showing remarkable resilience despite geopolitical tensions, political uncertainty, and concerns over slowing global growth. Rather than cooling, economic activity appears to be accelerating, driven by expansive fiscal policy, robust corporate investment, resilient consumer spending, and strong financial markets. While this momentum has boosted corporate earnings and investor confidence, it has also intensified concerns that the economy may be overheating. The growing divergence between buoyant equity markets and rising bond yields reflects an increasingly important debate: can the Federal Reserve keep inflation under control without tightening policy, or will bond markets eventually force policymakers to act? [...]