Commerzbank’s Michael Pfister notes that Canada’s first-quarter real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) unexpectedly contracted and the previous quarter was revised lower, undermining hopes of a 2026 recovery. With the labour market already flashing warnings, he argues that Bank of Canada (BoC) rate hikes are highly questionable. He does not expect tightening before December and sees lower USD/CAD driven by a weaker US Dollar (USD), not a stronger Canadian Dollar (CAD). [...]