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10% inflation splits rate call predictions
Pakistan's headline inflation is expected to rise to 10% in October 2026, driven by higher electricity charges, petrol prices and food costs, while persistent inflationary pressures could prompt the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) to raise its policy rate by 50-100 basis points at its October 26 meeting, according to a Growth Securities report authored by Nasheed Malik, which projects the National Consumer Price Index (NCPI) increasing by 1.5% month-on-month (MoM), compared with 6.2% year-on-year (YoY) and 1.7% MoM in October 2025. [....]