Imagine someone looking into their crystal ball and telling you at the beginning of October that the coming September CPI data would be higher than expected, and producer prices (PPI) would rise 1.3% for the month, well above the 0.5% forecast. On top of the bad inflation news, they also said more inflation pressure was brewing, with crude oil prices rising $10 through the first two weeks of the month. Based on that foresight, where would you guess the 10-year Treasury yield would be? [....]