The UCLA Anderson Forecast's September 2026 outlook finds an economy that has largely weathered a series of disruptions, with economic growth remaining resilient, even as inflation and interest rates have risen and labor markets nationally and in California remain weak. The outlook has shifted considerably over the course of the year. In March, the Forecast expected tax cuts and rapidly expanding investment in artificial intelligence to help reaccelerate the U.S. economy in 2026. Three months later, the war in Iran and resulting oil shock had replaced tariffs as the leading threat to that expansion. [...]