Prolonged war in the Middle East and a persistent fall in oil and gas supplies from the region could cause a “substantial spike” in inflation and a “sharp drop in output” in the euro zone, the European Central Bank’s chief economist has warned. In an interview with the Financial Times, Philip Lane said that “directionally, a jump in energy prices puts upward pressure on inflation, especially in the near term”, and that such a development would be “negative” for growth. [...]