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Rates Outlook: Spread Exposures
Geopolitics continue to drive volatility and as conflicting signals dampen hopes for a quick solution to the conflict, oil prices have drifted higher, closer to the US$100/bbl threshold again. The resulting market volatility and more aggressive central bank pricing also feeds into bond spreads. In eurozone government bond spreads, Italian spreads have suffered the most. The 10y spread over German Bunds had peaked towards 95bp by the end of March before easing lower to now stand at just above 70bp, still more than 10bp above levels observed just before the turmoil. Less impacted have been French spreads, but they also sit around 6bp wider compared to before the crisis. [...]