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The bond market’s favorite recession signal is on the fritz

The bond market hasn’t rung false recession alarms for this long in at least half a century. By Monday, it will be three full years since the market’s movements started suggesting a U.S. downturn was on the horizon. That’s when 3-month Treasury yields first pushed above 10-year ones - inverting the yield curve - as traders anticipated the Federal Reserve’s steep interest-rate hikes would stall the economy. [...]