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Emerging market risk premia in shifting geopolitical winds
International winds are changing in the Middle East and beyond. The answer, as someone once put it, is blowing in the wind. For decades, the United States anchored a global order built on rules, multilateral cooperation and relatively predictable economic integration. Trade expanded under a steady breeze. Capital moved within an institutional framework that provided stability. The dollar sat firmly at the center of the system. Those steady tailwinds are no longer assured. [...]