Russia's Economic Development Ministry has published a surprisingly candid forecast, with GDP expectations cut and investment projections slashed, promoting an economy riddled with temporary shocks as the new normal. Despite a brief oil price spike driven by the war in Iran, Russia has seen little lasting benefit. Revenues remain below 2025 levels as tax windfalls are being recycled back to oil companies. Russia is unlikely to face economic collapse, but a structural revenue shortfall of USD 25–30b looks increasingly probable as oil prices fall and the ruble strengthens. [...]