Escalating disruptions across key Middle East maritime corridors are tightening global energy supply and keeping a higher risk premium embedded in crude markets. Each sustained $10 per barrel increase in crude oil prices can shave roughly 0.1–0.5 percentage points (pp) off the annual GDP growth in major net energy-importing economies, consistent with a widely used market rule of thumb and historical patterns seen in past supply-driven shocks, according to GlobalData, a leading intelligence and productivity platform. [...]