The war in the Middle East may be moving from open escalation toward an uneasy ceasefire, but its economic aftershocks are not fading with the headlines. If anything, they are becoming more deeply embedded in the global policy outlook. The most immediate market reactions, such as the spike in oil prices, the rush into gold, the jump in shipping and insurance costs, and the repricing of inflation risk, were dramatic but predictable. But what about the long-term consequences? [...]