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High rates and expensive oil create a global debt trap
Looking at global credit spreads today, you’d be forgiven for thinking the world was enjoying a period of profound macroeconomic tranquillity. Despite the steepest interest rate hikes in a generation and war in the Middle East, corporate and sovereign bonds have held up remarkably well. Traders remain fixated on the trajectory of the US Federal Reserve and obsessed with the artificial intelligence financing frenzy. But that calm is a mirage. While advanced economies debate the nuances of “soft landings”, low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) are quietly sliding into a sovereign debt catastrophe. [...]