April CPI Tuesday May 12 is the inflection — Headline CPI expected at 0.6% m/m (down from 0.9%) and 3.7% y/y (up from 3.3%). Core CPI expected at 0.4% m/m (up from 0.2%) and 2.7% y/y (up from 2.6%). Kalshi prediction markets and analyst consensus are aligned at the same numbers, so a clean in-line print isn’t pricing a major surprise. Levels: core 0.4% m/m / 2.7% y/y; headline 0.6% m/m / 3.7% y/y. CPI swaps curve has May at ~4.2%, easing through the summer — the curve prices May at ~4.2%, June at ~4.0%, July at ~3.9%, and August at ~3.7%. The shape is heavily oil-dependent: if oil moves higher, the curve goes higher; if Iran simmers and Hormuz reopens, the curve flattens. [...]