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To QE or Not to QE: Does the Bond Market already know the Answer?

If the Fed is about to restart QE — as I’ve been reading non-stop on social media over the past week — the three-month Treasury has a strange way of showing any nervousness or excitement about it. In fact, the three-month Treasury rate rose by two basis points on Tuesday to 3.73%. That’s not exactly what you would expect ahead, an asset-purchase program designed to expand the Fed’s balance sheet. [...]