According to the IMF, the global economic outlook for 2026 has weakened significantly due to the ongoing Middle East conflict, specifically the war involving Israel, the US, and Iran. While global growth was initially projected to be steady, it is now under severe pressure from the largest energy supply disruption in history.
The OECD projects global growth of 2.9% for 2026, down from previous estimates of more than 4.0% due to energy shocks. Some analysts warn that a prolonged conflict, specifically a six-month closure of the Strait of Hormuz, could tip the global economy into an outright contraction (recession), with world growth falling as low as 1.4%. [...]