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The bond market is flashing a new US economic reality. Here is what it is showing

For nearly two years, one indicator dominated conversations across Wall Street: the inverted US Treasury yield curve. Every time short-term Treasury yields moved above long-term yields, investors interpreted it as a warning flare for recession. Historically, that signal carried weight. Before several major downturns, including the 2008 financial crisis and earlier recessions, the inversion arrived months before the economy weakened. [...]