ABN AMRO’s Rogier Quaedvlieg reviews the latest United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) downside surprise and its implications for the Federal Reserve (Fed). He highlights that both headline and core inflation fell sharply versus consensus, prompting markets to reprice the odds of future hikes. Drawing on the June Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes, he outlines two main policy scenarios and concludes the Fed is likely to stay on hold for the rest of 2026. [...]