As the International Monetary Fund (IMF) convenes its Spring Meetings, the global outlook has deteriorated following the February 2026 outbreak of war in the Middle East. The latest World Economic Outlook (WEO)projects global growth to slow to 3.1% in 2026 (a 0.3% reduction from January’s forecast), reflecting the negative shock to energy markets and heightened geopolitical uncertainty. Crucially, the IMF expects growth to be slower even if the conflict de-escalates. Meanwhile, high-frequency indicators – specifically the global Purchasing Managers’ Indices (PMIs) – are already flashing early warning signals that warrant closer attention. Taken together, they suggest a synchronised growth deceleration may already be underway, indicating that the IMF's WEO forecasts may be too optimistic. [...]