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Bond options markets signal uncertainty over Fed direction under Warsh
While markets are almost fully priced for the Fed to leave interest rates unchanged at Wednesday’s meeting, attention is firmly focused on Warsh’s inaugural press conference, with investors seeking clues on the trajectory of US monetary policy in the months ahead. The uncertainty comes as geopolitical tensions appear to ease following plans for an interim peace agreement between the US and Iran. The prospect of a deal has driven oil prices to their lowest levels in three months, potentially reducing inflationary pressures and complicating the policy outlook. [...]