The International Monetary Fund has projected Kazakhstan to reach roughly $23,170 in nominal GDP per capita by 2031. On the same current-dollar measure, it is projected to pass China around 2026 and Russia by 2031. The comparison is a milestone, but it requires perspective. It is neither a purchasing-power verdict nor a comprehensive measure of household welfare. It nevertheless marks Kazakhstan’s entry into a higher income band. The question is how a state that began independence amid post-Soviet economic disruption reached this stage. [...]