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ECB flags 6.3% inflation risk by 2027 under worst-case Iran war scenario

The European Central Bank has warned that euro-zone inflation could climb to 6.3 per cent in early 2027 under a severe escalation of the Iran war, sharpening concerns over a fresh stagflation shock even as it held interest rates steady. The central bank kept its key rate unchanged at 2 per cent for a sixth straight meeting, but its latest projections signal a clear shift in tone, with risks to prices rising alongside a weakening growth outlook. [...]