The turmoil in commodity markets, driven by events in the Middle East, is not great news for the global economy. But the impact will not be the same everywhere. Countries that rely heavily on imports of oil, gas, fertilizers, etc., are likely to feel it the most. That includes not only parts of Asia, but also the Eurozone. According to ECB estimates, a 14.2% increase in oil prices and a 20% jump in gas prices could add about 0.5 percentage points to inflation. In a more severe supply shock, inflation could exceed forecasts by over 0.8 points, while eurozone growth next year might come in 0.6 points below expectations. [...]