Every day we see oil nudge a few dollars up or down and alongside 2Y rates, but longer-dated rates have not seen much change recently. In fact, if we look at 10Y EUR swap rates, we can identify a trading range of between 3.0% and 3.1% for most of the past month. The stability further out the curve is consistent with markets’ expectations of a short-lived inflation spike, one that doesn’t last long into 2027. CPI fixings suggest a rise in inflation to around 3% by year-end, but then falling to 2.4% by April 2027. And with long-term inflation expectations still anchored close to target, markets are not seeing a more prolonged impact. [...]