Since the Iranian conflict began, bond yields have risen sharply due to investor expectations of a spike in inflation. Recent inflation data shows those rising inflation expectations are somewhat justified. In March and April, the monthly rate of inflation, as measured by CPI, rose by 0.86% and 0.64%, respectively. On an annualized basis, those equate to inflation running in the high single digits. The problem with that cursory review is that bond yields are based not solely on current inflation but on inflation over the bond’s entire term. [...]