The economy rising at 3.0% q/q SAAR in Q2, on the back of a 0.5% decline in Q1 reflected massive dislocations in the underlying components of growth. Such noise suggested the need to look at the underlying demand, which slowed significantly since last year. With the gauge for Q2 coming in very close to our expectations (2.8%), we estimate GDP growth will likely remain tepid going into H2 and reach a low point in Q4. [...]