Russia’s economy is not collapsing, but it is also not as strong as the Kremlin wants the world to believe. The government’s argument has some facts behind it: Russia reported 3.6% GDP growth in 2023, managed to avoid the deep recession many expected after sanctions, and still carries relatively low public debt, with the IMF putting general government gross debt near 19.1% of GDP in 2026. These figures give Moscow a useful message: sanctions hurt, but they did not break the economy. [....]